人口与经济

养老金新政:新旧养老保险政策的替代率测算

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作者：林东海, 丁煜

单位：厦门大学公共事务学院, 福建厦门 361005

关键词：养老金;替代率;做实账户

分类号：F840.67

出版年,卷(期):页码：2007,28(1):69-74

摘要：

本论文通过模型在一定的精算假设下作了比较分析, 发现在同样的精算假设下测算, 改革之前的养老金替代率要明显高于原来预计的目标替代率, 其主要原因在于在个人账户空账的条件下, 个人账户假设的利息率是比较低的, 而做实个人账户之后, 资本市场可以获得合理的利息回报, 个人账户积累的效率提高, 加上基础养老金比例增加, 是改革后养老金目标替代率没有下降的关键。

The paper makes a comparative analysis through the model under actuary assumption, discovers that under the same actuary assumpt ion, the replacement rate of pension before reform is obviously higher than forecasted target replacement rate. The main reason is the interest rate of personal account is low under the situation of empty individual account. After the individual account is consolidated, capital market can gain reasonable interest reward, the accumulation efficient is improved, and the proportion of basic pension is increased, all those factors are the key to a steady pension replacement rate after reform.

基金项目：

作者简介：

林东海(1971-),福建厦门人,经济学博士,厦门大学公共事务学院讲师,主要研究方向为劳动经济学、养老保险。

参考文献：

[1] 王晓军.社会保障精算原理[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社, 2000.
[2] Howard E.Winklevoss. Pension Mathematics With Numerical Illustrations[M].Pension Research Council, Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, 1993.
[3] 董克用, 王燕^①.养老保险[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社, 2000.
[4] Glenn D.All ison and Howard E.Winklevoss.The int errelationship among inflation rates, salarr rates, interest rates, and pension cost[J].Transactions of Society of Actuaries, 1975 Vol.27.

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