人口与经济

人口与经济:从历史到现实的认识

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作者：孔令锋

单位：南开大学人口与发展研究所, 天津 300071

关键词：人口;经济;认识

分类号：C92-05

出版年,卷(期):页码：2001,22(3):15-21

摘要：

人口与经济问题是人类社会长期关注的问题之一,也是人口经济学最重要的研究内容。本文对自马尔萨斯人口理论建立以来的有代表性的人口经济理论进行了回顾,这些理论主要包括:马尔萨斯人口论与悲观主义人口经济理论;长期停滞论和乐观主义人口经济理论;低水平均衡陷井论和临界最小努力命题;适度人口论与可持续发展理论;以及人力资本论与新增长理论。在此基础上,对人口经济理论演进的特点进行了总结:研究内容与不同时代所面临的主要社会经济问题紧密相关;研究领域日益宽泛;研究视野从发达国家扩展到发展中国家乃至全球范围;研究方法和研究思路的进步与完善。

The problem of population and economy is one of the long-term problems noticed by human society and is the most important research contents of population economics.This paper has reviewed the typical theories of population economics since Malthus.Those theories include:Malthusianism, the pessimistic population economic theory, the theory of long-term stagnation, the optimistic population economic theory, low-level equilibrium trap theory, critical minimum-effort topic, optimum population theory, sustainable development theory, human capital theory and Neo-growth theory.The characteristics of population economic theories can be summarized as follows:The research contents are close related with the social and economic problems of the time.The research fields are increasingly extensive.The research view has been expanded from developed countries to developing countries and even to global sphere.The research method and clues have progressed and become more perfect.

基金项目：

作者简介：

孔令锋(1969-), 山东济南人, 南开大学人口与发展研究所博士生, 研究方向为人口资源与环境经济学。

参考文献：

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[2] Keynes, M.Some Economic Consequences of a Declining Population.Eugenics Review 29(1937):13-27.
[3] Hansen, A.Economic Progress and a Declining Population Growth.29(March 1939):1-15.
[4] [美] 朱利安·L·西蒙.人口增长经济学.北京:北京大学出版社, 1984.
[5] Simon,J.The Ultimate Resource.Prenceton University Press, Prenceton,New Jersey,1981.
[6] Hoover, E.Population Growth and Economic Development in Low-income countries.Princeton University Press, Prenceton, New Jersey, 1958.
[7] Leibenstein, H.Economi c Backwardness and Economic Growth.Wiley,New York.
[8] Spengler, J.J.Facing Zero Population Growth.Universi ty of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1974.
[9] [美] 舒尔茨.论人力资本投资.北京:北京大学出版社, 1987.
[10] [美] 加里·S·贝克尔.人力资本.北京:北京大学出版社, 1987.

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